Jenna Ware and Jack Norris at a Hangar Party
Jenna Ware and Jack Norris, Voyager World Flight, aerospace engineer, friend of Joe’s.

How many trans persons are there in the United States?

There is no good data to start with, so no one really knows prevalence, but I’ll demonstrate some numbers and provide some answers.

Definitions are crucial in prevalence and change often. “Studies” of prevalence are scholars with idiosyncratic definitions of trans issues—little uniformity—and looking at things like suicidality, drugs, abuse, violence….with most bits arranged so it’s particular to just that study. The larger picture is missing—I think because there isn’t one.

About 330,000,000

This one, we do know fairly well from the Census.

Maybe 2 Million and growing every year.

No one knows how many as many individuals do not disclose and research sources do not really know.

One can “be” TG without any kind of medical intervention and without changing a driver’s license, and if you’re counting per who identifies as “transgender,” then it could be anyone.  The Williams Institute at UCLA  report  guesses maybe 0.6% of the U.S. population (overall) with some 1.4 million who so identify, double the estimate of Gates in 2011—and this TWI guestimate was in 2016. The numbers grow every year. It could be closer to 3 million by now because I don’t think opening is linear. TWI says the increase is likely due to factors such as a perceived increase in visibility and acceptance.

The number grows and changes through time and with definitions.

Maybe 200,000 in the U.S.

No one knows, here, either.

See the prevalence problems:

Some people change and then act almost like secret agents trying to blend in so no one knows they were born the other sex. This is “stealth transsexualism” and was my forte. Nearby people usually know or soon learn, but the need is there in stealth transsexuals, so they do it. I believe it is therapeutic after earlier cis sex-form/role traumata.

Some people will not even disclose to their doctor, making up a false reason why they need maintenance hormone replacement therapy.

Some people go to other countries (such as Europe or Asia) to have SRS, come back and then maybe do the above or not, so there is no record of who did what surgery, especially since a passport may already display the destination sex designation.

Some people will falsify documents, even government documents, to show SRS when it was not obtained.

Some people go to other countries for surgery and then take up residence in other countries—or go from another country to here in the U.S….and do not disclose…

Some people use cash and not insurance to pay, so insurance company records are not reliable.

Many, I fear, more than some, make genital formation status vague by using non-specific terms such as “GRS” (instead of SRS) because GRS is about gender and may be used to imply SRS, while privately referring to other surgeries like FFS or rhinoplasty…or outright mislead altogether.

An effort was made. Lynn estimates some 1:2500 in the U.S.—that’s 132,000, but source information is not reliable, and as the years go so it grows.

So, with 330,000,000 in the United States of America:

It looks clear “the vast majority” of trans people are transgender (not wanting SRS) with maybe some 10%-ish being transsexual, give or take 5%, some 90%-ish not wanting SRS. Maybe. These numbers cannot be relied upon .

TG: 2,000,000 = 0.006, 0.6% of the population identifying as transgender
TS: 200,000 = 0.0006, 0.06% of the population as transsexual
10% of trans people transsexual, 90% transgender (no SRS)

TG: 3,000,000 = 0.009, 0.9% of U.S. ID as transgender
TS: 300,000 = 0.0009, 0.09% as transsexual
10% of trans persons transsexual, 90% transgender (no SRS)

If we guestimate more TG and less TS
TG: 3,000,000 = 0.009, 0.9% of U.S. ID as transgender
TS: 200,000 = 0.0006, 0.06% as transsexual
6.7% of U.S. trans persons transsexual, 93.3% transgender (no SRS)

If we guestimate less TG and more TS
TG: 2,000,000 = 0.006, 0.6% of U.S. ID as transgender
TS: 300,000 = 0.0009, 0.09% of U.S. as transsexual
15% of U.S. trans persons transsexual, 85% transgender (no SRS)…

My husband was an aerospace engineer, and said his industry referred to conclusions with as many guesses as a “WAG,” a “wild assed guess.”

It’s a safe bet that “the vast majority” never have or want SRS. My decades in this shows that TG statements of intent are to give the impression that the sexuality has moved with a change in gender, when it usually has not. In most cases, SRS is avoided where the sexuality is not cross, and if someone is cornered, a new excuse will be delivered, unless one is viewed as an insider or if sex is in the offing….

Cait Jenner (I knew her 16,17, and 18) says in her book (she didn’t write it as she says she’s dyslexic, Buzz Bissinger did) that “Only about 30% of trans women have any type of surgery…so why even consider it?” Cait is pro transgender paradigm, I believe, for book and movie sales.  But that figure seems correct in that the “vast majority” never have any surgery, and only a small percentage of that becomes actual SRS. Someone having an orchiectomy (castration) is not SRS, though it may be claimed to be.

That is why I tend to say:

Transgender (as umbrella) “…90%-ish” or “almost all” never want to be the other sex.

Transgender (the phenomenon of changing gender but not wanting to change sex) are a MUCH larger minority than transsexuals.

Transsexuals are rare and need to be the opposite sex from transgenders.